Our service is constantly asked about our methods and how we continually beat the bookmakers each week. Instead of keeping secrets, this page reveals many of our secrets and methods for our visitors. The reality is we can share this information because it is our inside resources and people that make MBG Sports.net the undisputed leader in the sports handicapping industry.
We realize this is a lengthy description of our methods, and it is only meant to help our visitors understand our business, but we believe it is necessary to demonstrate the extreme value MBG Sports.net offers to the sports gambler.
MBG Sports.net has created a highly successful and unique method to beating bookmakers each and every week. You may be surprised to learn that our method has very little to do with statistical research. This is a brief synopsis of our handicapping secrets and how MBG Sports.net strives to achieve a 65%+ winning margin each and every week.
The real key to winning against a book is understanding the betting line not useless historical data about two teams. Most sports handicapping services and gamblers rely on historical data and statistics, and almost all of them lose consistently.
To make enough winning picks to beat the sportsbooks' lines over the long run, you must begin by analyzing the line on a given game to match the perspective of the oddsmakers.
By analyzing the line in reverse, you'll be able to do two important things for increasing the success of your sports picks:
1) You'll be able to shift your focus away from using statistics, sports knowledge, and other unprofitable techniques to pick which team you think will cover the point spread.
2) You'll be able to redirect your focus towards using indications in the line on a given game to identify which team oddsmakers & insiders think will cover.
Looking for indications in the sportsbooks' lines and point spreads is your best bet for picking which team the oddsmakers and insiders think will cover the spread in a given game.
The key is to understand that the sportsbooks' lines and point spreads are the oddsmakers' instrument for dividing the monetary betting action in half for a given game. In other words, the very existence of betting lines and point spreads gives a sportsbook an element of control over how the population as a whole decides to bet in a given game.
To start, the line on a game is not the oddsmakers' assessment of what the difference in final score will be. It is their assessment of what particular football odds line number will draw even action from the combination of sports bettors.
Oddsmakers are masters at using lines and point spreads to keep betting action divided in half. By making adjustments in a given line or point spread oddsmakers can sway large numbers of sports bettors who have not yet made a decision on which team to bet on in a game to place their bet on the team that has "lesser action." Ask yourself, how often have you been undecided on a game with a 3 point spread only to make your decision after the line moved down to 2 1/2 or up to 3 1/2? The movement in the line was the book's effort to balance betting action, and often times it can have a direct result on your betting decision.
Of course, when lines and point spreads are moved, it can also sway sports bettors who have already placed a bet on a game to "put down" additional action on that game... Or to even reverse their direction and bet the other way to try to "sandwich the game" and hit both sides. But as far as the oddsmakers are concerned, keeping the betting action split at each odds line number (dollar number) or point spread is the key. Doing so allows the sportsbooks to make their juice.
By controlling the odds and point spreads, the bookmakers have an amazing amount of control over who bets what amount, and at what point in time they bet that amount, thus enabling them to keep the action divided in half. However, before oddsmakers can even begin to make adjustments to a particular betting line to keep action divided in half, they must choose a starting point or "opening line" for the game.
When creating opening lines, the incentive for a sportsbook's oddsmaker is to choose lines that will do a fast, efficient job of splitting action in half. Doing so guarantees that they can make the most juice.
If an opening line doesn't draw even action, the sooner the line can be adjusted to draw even action, the more juice the sportsbook can guarantee for itself. Simply put, the more a line needs to be adjusted to keep betting action even, the more overall risk the sportsbook is exposed to, and the lower the profit they stand to make. This is because the sportsbook can get stuck with uneven betting action for any given line or point spread number, which cuts into profits.
Therefore, you can see that the oddsmakers would be very interested in knowing what specific point spread number or odds line number would draw even betting action for a given game before having to release the opening line for that game to the public!
But before oddsmakers could know what an opening line on a given game would need to be set at to draw even action, oddsmakers would need to know which team sports bettors planned to put their money on in advance of that game! And for a variety of different line numbers. This brings us to the oddsmakers' greatest strength when it comes to using betting lines and point spreads to divide betting action in half.
The oddsmakers' greatest strength for dividing betting action in half is based on the fact that most sports bettors make their betting decisions by relying on some level of information they have collected about the matchup. To cope, oddsmakers have developed techniques to allow them to measure the level of information that prospective sports bettors know about a given game, and oddsmakers can look at this information before having to release the opening line for that game.
One method oddsmakers use to measure the information level known to sports bettors about a game is to release an exclusive "unrefined" test line for select knowledgeable and well respected gamblers or "insiders" to bet into.
For inside gamblers who have access to these "unrefined" test lines, it's like having access to free money. Because if the betting line ends up being far off from the test line, the game can be sandwiched by insiders for a potential double hit.
But it's well worth it for the oddsmakers to give these insiders the sandwich opportunity. Because by allowing select insiders an exclusive opportunity to place bets against early test lines, oddsmakers get a chance to determine whether or not the insiders are betting the same side in a game, whether insiders are split, and how strongly insiders feel about their selection in terms of how much they are betting.
Collecting this type of information about how insiders are evaluating their selection on a given game helps the oddsmakers make an assessment of what the opening line will need to be set at in order to generate even betting action from the combination of inside sports bettors and general public sports bettors on a given game.
Of course oddsmakers also study general public betting patterns. But as a rule they are more concerned with measuring insider betting interest because insiders place bigger bets (which are harder to balance), and because insiders can at any moment have access to more relevant information about a given game than anyone else.
For example, insiders may know:
What types of strategies the teams plan to use
Whether or not the teams are emotionally ready to play
Who is officiating the game and what affect it can have on the teams' playing styles
Whether the starting quarterback has a blister on his thumb
Insiders can be in possession of so much pertinent info (a.k.a. inside info/inside reads) that never gets disseminated to the public prior to the start of the game that most people simply wouldn't believe it. The level of information that insiders possess is obviously the driving point for their bets.
And since oddsmakers are providing insiders with an early test line to bet into so that they can measure the level of insider interest in a game before creating the opening line for the sole purpose of balancing action, sportsbooks' odds and point spreads very often reflect the level of information that is known to insiders about a given game.
We hope this gives you some solid insight on how MBG Sports.net is different from other services. We have an extremely clear understanding of how the odds system is manipulated by the oddsmakers as it relates to the public action on a game. Additionally, our service does not depend on past information, but rather inside information, and our exclusive contacts within the sports industry to make you money every week.
